I-IEA (2023), i-Global Electric Vehicle Outlook 2023, IEA, Paris https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2023, Ilayisensi: CC BY 4.0
Naphezu kokuphazamiseka kwe-supply chain, ukungaqiniseki kwezomnotho omkhulu kanye ne-geopolitical, kanye nezintengo eziphezulu zempahla namandla, ukuthengiswa kwezimoto zikagesi1 kuzofinyelela kwelinye izinga eliphakeme kakhulu ngo-2022. Ukukhula kokuthengiswa kwezimoto zikagesi kuza ngokumelene nesizinda semakethe yezimoto enciphayo yomhlaba wonke: imoto iyonke. ukuthengiswa ngo-2022 kuzoba ngaphansi ngo-3% kunango-2021. Ukuthengiswa kwezimoto zikagesi, okuhlanganisa nezimoto zikagesi zamabhethri (ama-BEV) kanye nezimoto zikagesi eziyi-hybrid (PHEVs), zeqe izigidi eziyi-10 ngonyaka odlule, zikhuphuke ngo-55% zisuka ku-2021.2. Lesi sibalo - izimoto zikagesi eziyizigidi ezingu-10 ezithengiswa emhlabeni wonke - zidlula inani lezimoto ezithengiswa kuyo yonke i-EU (cishe izigidi ezingu-9.5) futhi cishe ingxenye yazo zonke izimoto ezithengiswa e-EU. Ukuthengiswa kwezimoto e-China ngo-2022. Eminyakeni emihlanu nje, kusukela ngo-2017 kuya ku-2022, ukuthengiswa kwezimoto zikagesi kweqe kusuka esigidini esi-1 kuya ngaphezu kwezigidi ezingu-10. Kwakuvame ukuthatha iminyaka emihlanu, kusukela ngo-2012 kuya ku-2017, ukuze ukuthengiswa kwe-EV kusuke ku-100,000 kuya ku-1 million, okugqamisa isimo sokukhula kokuthengiswa kwe-EV. Isabelo sezimoto zikagesi ekuthengisweni kwezimoto sezizonke sikhuphuke sisuka ku-9% ngo-2021 saya ku-14% ngo-2022, siphindwe izikhathi ezingaphezu kwe-10 isabelo sazo ngo-2017.
Ukwanda kokuthengiswa kuzoletha isibalo sezimoto ezisebenza ngogesi emigwaqeni yomhlaba zifinyelele ezigidini ezingama-26, zikhuphuke ngo-60% zisuka ku-2021, kanti izimoto ezisebenza ngogesi ezingenasici zibalwa ngaphezu kuka-70% wokunyuka konyaka, njengaseminyakeni edlule. Ngenxa yalokho, ngo-2022, cishe amaphesenti angu-70 emikhumbi yezimoto zikagesi emhlabeni wonke azoba izimoto ezisebenza ngogesi kuphela. Ngamafuphi, ukukhula kokuthengiswa phakathi kuka-2021 no-2022 kuzoba phezulu njengoba phakathi kuka-2020 no-2021 - ukukhuphuka kwezimoto eziyizigidi ezingu-3.5 - kodwa ukukhula okulinganiselwe kuphansi (ukuthengisa kuzophindeka kabili phakathi kuka-2020 no-2021). Ukukhula okungajwayelekile ngo-2021 kungenzeka kungenxa yemakethe yezimoto zikagesi eqala ukuvela ngemuva kobhubhane lwe-coronavirus (Covid-19). Uma kuqhathaniswa neminyaka edlule, izinga lokukhula lonyaka lokuthengiswa kwezimoto zikagesi ngo-2022 lifana nesilinganiso sokukhula esimaphakathi ngo-2015-2018, futhi izinga lokukhula lonyaka lobunikazi bezimoto zikagesi emhlabeni wonke ngo-2022 lifana nezinga lokukhula ngo-2021 nangale kwalokho. Esikhathini sika-2015-2018. Imakethe yezimoto zikagesi ibuyela ngokushesha esivinini sangaphambi kobhubhane.
Ukukhula ekuthengisweni kwe-EV kwahluka ngokwesifunda kanye ne-powertrain, kodwa kwaqhubeka kubuswa yi-People's Republic of China (“China”). Ngo-2022, ukuthengiswa kwezimoto zikagesi eChina kuzokwenyuka ngo-60% uma kuqhathaniswa no-2021 kuye ku-4.4 million, kanti ukuthengiswa kwezimoto ezihlanganisiwe kuzocishe kuphindeke kathathu kuye ku-1.5 million. Ukukhula okusheshayo kokuthengiswa kwe-PHEV uma kuqhathaniswa ne-BEV kudinga ukucwaninga okwengeziwe eminyakeni ezayo njengoba ukuthengiswa kwe-PHEV kuhlala kubuthaka kukonke futhi manje kungenzeka kuhambisane nokukhuphuka kwe-post-Covid-19; Ukuthengiswa kwe-EV kuphindwe kathathu kusukela ngo-2020 kuya ku-2021. Ngisho noma ukuthengiswa kwezimoto sekukonke ngo-2022 kwehle ngo-3% kusukela ngo-2021, ukuthengiswa kwe-EV kusakhula.
I-China yenza cishe u-60% wokubhaliswa kwezimoto ezintsha zikagesi emhlabeni. Ngo-2022, okokuqala ngqa, iChina izobalelwa ngaphezu kwama-50% yenani eliphelele lezimoto ezisebenza ngogesi emigwaqweni yomhlaba, okuzoba yizimoto eziyizigidi eziyi-13.8. Lokhu kukhula okuqinile kuwumphumela weminyaka engaphezu kweshumi yokusekelwa okuqhubekayo kwenqubomgomo kwabamukela kuqala, okuhlanganisa nokunwetshwa kuze kube sekupheleni kuka-2022 kwezikhuthazo zokuthenga okwakuhlelelwe ukuthi ziphele ngo-2020 ngenxa ye-Covid-19, ngaphezu kweziphakamiso ezifana Nengqalasizinda Yokushaja. Ukukhishwa okusheshayo e-China kanye nenqubomgomo yokubhalisa eqinile yezimoto okungezona ezikagesi.
Isabelo sezimoto zikagesi ekuthengisweni kwezimoto sezizonke emakethe yasekhaya yaseChina sizofinyelela ku-29% ngo-2022, sikhuphuke sisuka ku-16% ngo-2021 futhi sibe ngaphansi kuka-6% phakathi kuka-2018 no-2020. ukuthengiswa kwezimoto zikagesi ngo-2025. - Shayela Imoto Yamandla Entsha (NEV)3 kusengaphambili. Zonke izinkomba zikhomba ukukhula okuqhubekayo: nakuba uMnyango Wezimboni kanye Nobuchwepheshe Bolwazi WaseShayina (MIIT), ophethe imboni yezimoto, ungakabuyekezi imigomo yawo yokuthengisa ye-NEV kazwelonke, okuhlosiwe kokunye ukufakwa kukagesi kwezokuthutha emgwaqeni sekuqinisekisiwe. ngonyaka ozayo. 2019. Imibhalo yamasu amaningana. I-China ihlose ukuzuza ingxenye engamaphesenti angama-50 yokuthengisa kulokho okubizwa ngokuthi “izindawo ezibalulekile zokunqanda ukungcoliswa komoya” kanye nesabelo samaphesenti angama-40 sokuthengiswa ezweni lonke ngo-2030 ukuze kusekelwe uhlelo lwezenzo lukazwelonke lokukhipha isikhutha esiphezulu. Uma izimakethe zakamuva ziqhubeka, okuhlosiwe kwe-China ka-2030 kungafinyelelwa maduze. Ohulumeni bezifundazwe nabo bayakweseka ukuqaliswa kwe-NEV, futhi kuze kube manje izifundazwe eziyi-18 sezibeke imigomo ye-NEV.
Ukwesekwa kwesifunda eShayina kusize nasekuthuthukiseni abakhiqizi bezimoto zikagesi abakhulu emhlabeni. Ikomkhulu layo eliseShenzhen, iBYD iphakela iningi lamabhasi namatekisi kagesi kuleli dolobha, kanti ubuholi bayo bubonakala nasesifisweni seShenzhen sokuzuza ingxenye engamaphesenti angama-60 yokudayiswa kwezimoto ezintsha ezisebenza ngamandla ngo-2025. IGuangzhou ihlose ukuzuza ingxenye engu-50% yemoto entsha yamandla. ukuthengiswa ngo-2025, kusize i-Xpeng Motors ukuba yande futhi ibe ngomunye wabaholi ezimotweni zikagesi ezweni.
Akukacaci ukuthi isabelo sase-China sokuthengiswa kwe-EV sizohlala singaphezu kwama-20% okuhlosiwe ngo-2023, njengoba ukuthengisa kungenzeka kuqine ikakhulukazi njengoba ukuvuselela kulindeleke ukuthi kuqedwe ekupheleni kuka-2022. Ukuthengiswa ngoJanuwari 2023 kwehle kakhulu, nakuba lokhu ngokwengxenye bekungenxa yesikhathi soNyaka Omusha Wenyanga, futhi uma kuqhathaniswa noJanuwari 2022, behle cishe ngo-10%. Kodwa-ke, ngoFebhuwari nangoMashi 2023, ukuthengiswa kwe-EV kuzofinyelela phezulu, okucishe kuphakame ngo-60% kunoFebhuwari 2022 futhi ngaphezu kuka-25% ngaphezu kukaFebruwari 2022. ephakeme kunokuthengiswa ngoMashi 2022, okuholele ekuthengisweni kwekota yokuqala 2023 ngaphezu kwama-20% ngaphezulu kwekota yokuqala ka-2022.
E-Europe4, ukuthengiswa kwezimoto zikagesi ngo-2022 kuzokhula ngaphezu kwe-15% uma kuqhathaniswa no-2021, kufinyelele kumayunithi ayizigidi ezingu-2.7. Ukukhula kokuthengisa bekushesha kakhulu eminyakeni edlule, ngezinga lokukhula lonyaka elingaphezu kwama-65% ngo-2021 kanye nezinga lokukhula eliphakathi kwama-40% ngo-2017-2019. Ngo-2022, ukuthengiswa kwe-BEV kuzokhula ngo-30% uma kuqhathaniswa no-2021 (kukhuphuke ngo-65% ngo-2021 uma kuqhathaniswa no-2020), kanti ukuthengiswa kwe-plug-in hybrid kuzokwehla cishe ngo-3%. I-Europe ibambe i-10% yokukhula komhlaba wonke ekuthengisweni kwezimoto ezintsha zikagesi. Naphezu kokukhula okuhamba kancane ngo-2022, ukuthengiswa kwezimoto zikagesi eYurophu kusakhula phakathi nokuwohloka okuqhubekayo kwemakethe yezimoto, ukuthengiswa kwezimoto okuphelele eYurophu ngo-2022 kwehle ngo-3% uma kuqhathaniswa no-2021.
Ukwehla kwezomnotho e-Europe uma kuqhathaniswa neminyaka edlule kukhombisa ngokwengxenye ukukhula okukhethekile ekuthengisweni kwezimoto zikagesi e-EU ngo-2020 nango-2021 njengoba abakhiqizi belungisa ngokushesha amasu abo ezinkampani ukuze kuhlangatshezwane nezindinganiso zokukhishwa kwe-CO2 ezamukelwayo ngo-2019. Amazinga ahlanganisa isikhathi sika-2020-2024, ne-EU- okuhlosiwe okubanzi kokungcoliswa komoya kuya ngokuya kuqina kusukela ngo-2025 nango-2030.
Izintengo zamandla aphezulu ngo-2022 zizoba nomthelela onzima ekuqhudelaneni kwezimoto zikagesi uma ziqhathaniswa nezimoto ezivuthayo zangaphakathi (i-ICE). Izintengo zikaphethiloli nodizili ezimotweni ezivuthayo ngaphakathi zinyukile, kodwa kwezinye izimo, izikweletu zikagesi wendawo yokuhlala (ezihlobene nokushajwa) nazo zinyukile. Izintengo eziphakeme zikagesi negesi nazo zikhuphula izindleko zokukhiqiza izinjini ezivuthayo zangaphakathi nezimoto zikagesi, futhi abanye abakhiqizi bezimoto bakholelwa ukuthi amanani aphezulu wamandla angakhawulela ukutshalwa kwezimali kwesikhathi esizayo kumthamo webhethri elisha.
Ngo-2022, i-Europe izosala iyimakethe yesibili ye-EV enkulu kunazo zonke emhlabeni ngemva kwe-China, ibala u-25% wesamba sokuthengiswa kwe-EV kanye no-30% wobunikazi bomhlaba. Isabelo sokudayiswa kwezimoto zikagesi sizofinyelela ku-21% uma kuqhathaniswa no-18% ngo-2021, 10% ngo-2020 futhi sibe ngaphansi kuka-3% ngo-2019. Amazwe ase-Europe ayaqhubeka nokubala phezulu ngesabelo sokuthengiswa kwe-EV, iNorway ehamba phambili ngama-88%, ISweden ngamaphesenti angama-54, iNetherlands ngama-35%, iJalimane ngama-31%, i-UK ngamaphesenti angama-23 kanye neFrance ngamaphesenti angama-21. 2022. I-Germany iyimakethe enkulukazi yaseYurophu ngevolumu yokuthengisa, ngokuthengiswa okungu-830,000 ngo-2022, kulandelwa i-UK ngo-370,000 kanye ne-France ngo-330,000. Ukuthengiswa eSpain nakho kudlule ku-80,000. Isabelo sezimoto zikagesi ekuthengisweni kwezimoto zikagesi zizonke eJalimane sikhuphuke ngokuphindwe kashumi uma kuqhathaniswa nangaphambi kwe-Covid-19, ngenxa yengxenye yokwenyuka kokusekelwa kwangemva kobhubhane njengemihlomulo yokuthenga i-Umweltbonus, kanye nokuthengiswa kwangaphambili okulindeleke kusukela ngo-2023 kuya ku-2022. kulo nyaka, izibonelelo zizophinde zehliswe. Kodwa-ke, e-Italy, ukuthengiswa kwe-EV kwehle kusuka ku-140,000 ngo-2021 kuya ku-115,000 ngo-2022, kuyilapho i-Austria, iDenmark neFinland nayo ibone ukwehla noma ukuqina.
Ukuthengisa e-Europe kulindeleke ukuthi kuqhubeke nokukhula, ikakhulukazi kulandela izinguquko zakamuva zenqubomgomo ngaphansi kohlelo lwe-Fit for 55. Imithetho emisha ibeka izindinganiso eziqinile zokukhishwa kwe-CO2 ka-2030-2034 futhi ihlose ukunciphisa ukukhishwa kwe-CO2 ezimotweni ezintsha namaveni ngo-100% ukusuka ku-2035 uma kuqhathaniswa namazinga ka-2021. Esikhathini esifushane, izinxephezelo ezisebenza phakathi kuka-2025 no-2029 zizoklomelisa abakhiqizi abazuza ingxenye engu-25% yokuthengiswa kwezimoto (u-17% wamaveni) ngezimoto ezikhishwa yiziro noma eziphansi. Ezinyangeni ezimbili zokuqala zika-2023, ukuthengiswa kwezimoto zikagesi kukhule ngaphezu kuka-30% unyaka nonyaka, kanti ukuthengiswa kwezimoto sekukonke kukhuphuke ngaphezudlwana kuka-10% unyaka nonyaka.
E-US, ukuthengiswa kwe-EV kuzokhula ngo-55% ngo-2022 uma kuqhathaniswa no-2021, nama-EV kuphela ehamba phambili. Ukuthengiswa kwezimoto zikagesi kukhuphuke ngo-70% kwafinyelela cishe kumayunithi angama-800,000, okuphawula unyaka wesibili wokukhula okuqinile ngemuva kokwehla kuka-2019-2020. Ukuthengiswa kwe-plug-in hybrid nakho kukhuphuke, yize ngo-15% kuphela. Ukukhula ekuthengisweni kwezimoto zikagesi e-US kunamandla ikakhulukazi uma kubhekwa ukuthi ukuthengiswa kwezimoto sezizonke ngo-2022 kwehle ngo-8% uma kuqhathaniswa no-2021, ngaphezu kwesilinganiso somhlaba esingu-3%. Sekukonke, i-US ibalwe ngamaphesenti ayi-10 okukhula kokuthengisa emhlabeni jikelele. Isamba sezimoto ezisebenza ngogesi sizofinyelela ezigidini ezi-3, okungama-40% ngaphezu kwango-2021, okuzoba ngu-10% yenani eliphelele lezimoto zikagesi emhlabeni. Izimoto zikagesi zibalelwa ku-8% sezizonke izimoto ezidayisiwe, zisuka ngaphezudlwana kuka-5% ngo-2021 futhi cishe zi-2% phakathi kuka-2018 no-2020.
Izinto ezimbalwa ezinomthelela ekwandeni kokuthengiswa e-US. Amamodeli angabizi kakhulu kunalawo anikezwa umholi wezomlando uTesla angasiza ukuvala igebe lokunikezela. Njengoba izinkampani ezinkulu ezifana ne-Tesla ne-General Motors zishaya ungqimphothwe woxhaso eminyakeni edlule ngoxhaso oluvela e-United States, ukwethulwa kwezinye izinkampani kwamamodeli amasha kusho ukuthi abathengi abaningi bangazuza kusukela ku-$7,500 ezinzuzweni zokuthenga. Njengoba ohulumeni namabhizinisi besondela ekufakeni ugesi, ukuqwashisa kuyakhula: ngo-2022, umuntu oyedwa kwabane baseMelika ulindele ukuthi imoto yakhe elandelayo ibe ngogesi, ngokusho kwe-AAA. Nakuba ingqalasizinda yokushaja nebanga lokuhamba lithuthukile eminyakeni yamuva nje, kuseyinselele enkulu kubashayeli base-US, uma kubhekwa amabanga amade ngokuvamile, ukungena okuphansi, nokutholakala okulinganiselwe kwezinye izindlela ezifana nojantshi. Kodwa-ke, ngo-2021, umthetho wengqalasizinda we-bipartisan wandisa ukwesekwa kokushajwa kwezimoto zikagesi ngokubeka amaRandi ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-5 phakathi kuka-2022 no-2026 ngoHlelo Lwefomula Yengqalasizinda Yemoto Kagesi Kazwelonke kanye nokwamukela Uhlelo Lwengqalasizinda Yezimoto zikagesi Kazwelonke ngokwaba ama-US$2.5 wezigidigidi ku- uhlobo lwezibonelelo zokuncintisana. Uhlelo Lokushaja Ngokuzikhethela kanye Nokwehliswa kwamandla kwengqalasizinda.
Ukusheshisa ekukhuleni kokuthengisa kungenzeka kuqhubeke ku-2023 nangale kwalokho, ngenxa yenqubomgomo entsha yokwesekwa (bona i-Electric Vehicle Deployment Outlook). I-Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) ivuse intshisekelo yomhlaba wonke yezinkampani zezimoto zikagesi ukuze zandise imisebenzi yokukhiqiza e-US. Phakathi kuka-Agasti 2022 noMashi 2023, abakhiqizi abakhulu bezimoto zikagesi namabhethri bamemezele ukutshalwa kwezimali okuhlanganisiwe kwamaRandi ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-52 ochungechungeni lokuhlinzekwa kwezimoto zikagesi eNyakatho Melika, lapho u-50% wasetshenziselwa ukukhiqizwa kwebhethri, kuyilapho izingxenye zebhethri nokukhiqizwa kwezimoto zikagesi kubalwa cishe ama-20. izigidigidi zamadola aseMelika. izigidigidi zamadola aseMelika.%. Sekukonke, izimemezelo zenkampani zihlanganisa izibopho zokuqala zokutshala imali ekusaseni lokukhiqizwa kwezimoto zikagesi zase-US, okuhlanganisa cishe amabhiliyoni angama-7.5 kuya ku-$108 wezigidigidi. U-Tesla, isibonelo, uhlela ukuhambisa i-gigafactory lithium-ion battery plant eBerlin e-Texas, lapho izosebenzisana ne-CATL yaseChina ukukhiqiza izimoto zikagesi zesizukulwane esilandelayo eMexico. AbakwaFord baphinde bamemezela isivumelwano neNingde Times sokwakha imboni yebhethri yaseMichigan futhi bahlela ukwandisa ukukhiqizwa kwezimoto zikagesi izikhathi eziyisithupha ekupheleni kuka-2023 uma kuqhathaniswa no-2022, ukufinyelela ezimotweni ezingu-600,000 ngonyaka futhi kukhuphule ukukhiqizwa kwezimoto eziyizigidi ezi-2 ekupheleni kuka-2022. . 2026. I-BMW ihlela ukukhulisa ukukhiqizwa kwezimoto zikagesi endaweni yayo yaseSouth Carolina ngemuva kwe-IRA. AbakwaVolkswagen bakhethe iCanada njengesizinda sayo sokuqala samabhethri ngaphandle kwase-Europe, ngenxa yokuthi izoqala ukusebenza ngo-2027, futhi itshala ama-dollar ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezimbili embonini eseNingizimu Carolina. Nakuba lokhu kutshalwa kwezimali kulindeleke ukuthi kuholele ekukhuleni okuqinile eminyakeni ezayo, umthelela wazo ogcwele ungase ungazwakali kuze kube u-2024, lapho isitshalo singena ku-inthanethi.
Esikhathini esifushane, i-IRA ikhawulele izimfuneko zokubamba iqhaza ezinzuzweni zokuthenga, njengoba izimoto kufanele zenziwe eNyakatho Melika ukuze zifanelekele ukuthola uxhaso. Kodwa-ke, ukuthengiswa kwe-EV kuhlale kuqinile kusukela ngo-Agasti 2022 futhi ezinyangeni ezimbalwa zokuqala zika-2023 kuzofana, njengoba ukuthengiswa kwe-EV kukhuphuke ngo-60% ngekota yokuqala ka-2023 uma kuqhathaniswa nesikhathi esifanayo ngo-2022, okungenzeka ukuthi kwathikamezekile ngokukhanselwa kukaJanuwari. 2023 Ukunciphisa umxhaso womdidiyeli. Lokhu kusho ukuthi amamodeli avela kubaholi bezimakethe manje angajabulela izaphulelo lapho uthenga. Ngokuhamba kwesikhathi, uhlu lwamamodeli afanelekela uxhaso kulindeleke ukuba lwande.
Izimpawu zokuqala zokuthengisa engxenyeni yokuqala ka-2023 zikhomba ethembeni, eliqiniswe izindleko eziphansi kanye nokwenyuka kokusekelwa kwezepolitiki ezimakethe ezibalulekile njenge-US. Ngakho-ke, njengoba izimoto zikagesi ezingaphezu kwezigidi ezingu-2.3 sezivele zidayisiwe engxenyeni yokuqala yalo nyaka, silindele ukuthi ukuthengiswa kwezimoto zikagesi kufinyelele ezigidini ezingu-14 ngo-2023. Lokhu kusho ukuthi ukuthengiswa kwezimoto zikagesi ngo-2023 kuzokhula ngo-35% uma kuqhathaniswa no-2022, futhi isabelo sokuthengiswa kwezimoto zikagesi emhlabeni wonke sizokhuphuka sisuka ku-14% ngo-2022 siye cishe ku-18%.
Ukuthengiswa kwezimoto zikagesi ezinyangeni ezintathu zokuqala zika-2023 kukhombisa izimpawu zokukhula okuqinile uma kuqhathaniswa nesikhathi esifanayo ngo-2022. E-US, izimoto zikagesi ezingaphezu kuka-320,000 zizothengiswa ngekota yokuqala ka-2023, kuze kufike ku-60% kusukela ngesikhathi esifanayo. ngo-2022. Ngesikhathi esifanayo ngo-2022. Njengamanje silindele ukuthi lokhu kukhula kuqhubeke unyaka wonke, njengoba ukuthengiswa kwezimoto zikagesi kudlula amayunithi ayizigidi ezingu-1.5. ngo-2023, okuholele ekutheni kube nesabelo esilinganiselwa ku-12% sokuthengiswa kwezimoto zikagesi zaseMelika ngo-2023.
E-China, ukuthengiswa kwe-EV kuqale kabi ngo-2023, kwathi ukuthengiswa kukaJanuwari kwehle ngo-8% kusukela ngoJanuwari 2022. Idatha yakamuva etholakalayo ibonisa ukuthi ukuthengiswa kwe-EV kukhula ngokushesha, kanti ukuthengiswa kwe-EV yaseChina kwenyuke ngaphezu kuka-20% kwikota yokuqala ka-2023 uma kuqhathaniswa neyokuqala. ikota ka-2022, ngama-EV angaphezu kwezigidi eziyi-1.3 abhalisiwe. Silindele ukuthi sonke isakhiwo sezindleko esivumayo sama-EV sidlule umthelela wokuqeda uxhaso lwe-EV ekupheleni kuka-2023. Ngenxa yalokho, okwamanje silindele ukuthengiswa kwe-EV e-China ukuthi kukhule ngaphezu kuka-30% uma kuqhathaniswa no-2022, kufinyelele cishe ezigidini ezingu-8. amayunithi ekupheleni kuka-2023, anesabelo sokuthengisa esingaphezu kwama-35% (29% ngo-2022).
Ukukhula kokuthengiswa kwezimoto zikagesi e-Europe kulindeleke ukuthi kube okuphansi kakhulu kwezimakethe ezintathu, kuqhutshwa izitayela zakamuva kanye nemigomo yokukhishwa kwe-CO2 eqinile engeke iqale ukusebenza kuze kube u-2025 ekuqaleni. Ngekota yokuqala ka-2023, ukuthengiswa kwezimoto zikagesi e-Europe kuzokhula cishe ngo-10% uma kuqhathaniswa nesikhathi esifanayo ngo-2022. ukuba ngogesi.
Ngaphandle kwemakethe ye-EV evamile, ukuthengiswa kwe-EV kulindeleke ukuthi kufinyelele cishe ku-900,000 ngo-2023, kukhuphuke ngo-50% kusukela ngo-2022. , kodwa isakhula.
Kunjalo, kunezingozi ezingezinhle kumbono ka-2023: ukwehla komnotho emhlabeni jikelele kanye nokuqedwa kweChina kuxhaso lwe-NEV kungadambisa ukukhula ekuthengisweni kwezimoto zikagesi emhlabeni wonke ngo-2023. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, izimakethe ezintsha zingavuleka ngaphambi kwesikhathi kunalokho obekulindelwe ngokuqhubekayo. amanani aphezulu kaphethiloli adinga izimoto ezisebenza ngogesi ezifundeni eziningi. Intuthuko entsha yezepolitiki, efana nesiphakamiso se-US Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) sika-Ephreli 2023 sokuqinisa izindinganiso zokukhipha isisi esibamba ukushisa ezimotweni, zingabonisa ukwenyuka kokuthengiswa ngaphambi kokuthi ziqale ukusebenza.
Umjaho wokufaka ugesi unyusa isibalo samamodeli ezimoto zikagesi ezitholakala emakethe. Ngo-2022, inani lezinketho ezitholakalayo lizofinyelela ku-500, uma liqhathaniswa nelingaphansi kwama-450 ngo-2021 futhi lingaphezu kokuphindwe kabili kwango-2018-2019. Njengaseminyakeni edlule, i-China inephothifoliyo yomkhiqizo ebanzi kakhulu enamamodeli acishe abe ngu-300 atholakalayo, okuphinda kabili inani lango-2018-2019 ngaphambi kobhubhane lwe-Covid-19. Leso sibalo sisacishe siphindwe kabili kunaseNorway, iNetherlands, iJalimane, iSweden, iFrance ne-UK, ngayinye enamamodeli angaba ngu-150 ongakhetha kuwo, ngaphezu kokuphindwe kathathu isibalo sangaphambi kobhubhane. Angaphansi kwamamodeli ayi-100 azotholakala e-US ngo-2022, kodwa aphindwe kabili kunangaphambi kwalolu bhubhane; eCanada, Japan, naseNingizimu Korea, 30 noma ngaphansi ayatholakala.
Amathrendi ka-2022 akhombisa ukukhula okukhulayo kwemakethe yezimoto zikagesi futhi akhombisa ukuthi abakhiqizi bezimoto basabela esidingweni esikhulayo sabathengi sezimoto zikagesi. Kodwa-ke, inani lamamodeli e-EV atholakalayo lisengaphansi kwezimoto ezijwayelekile zenjini evuthayo, ehlala ngaphezulu kwe-1,250 kusukela ngo-2010 futhi ifinyelela ku-1,500 maphakathi neshumi leminyaka eledlule. Ukuthengiswa kwamamodeli enjini evuthayo yangaphakathi kwehle kancane kancane eminyakeni yamuva, nge-CAGR engu--2% phakathi kuka-2016 no-2022, yafinyelela cishe amayunithi angu-1,300 ngo-2022. Lokhu kwehla kuyehluka ezimakethe ezinkulu zezimoto futhi kubaluleke kakhulu. Lokhu kubonakala ikakhulukazi e-China, lapho inani lezinketho ze-ICE ezitholakala ngo-2022 liphansi ngo-8% kunango-2016, uma kuqhathaniswa no-3-4% e-US naseYurophu ngesikhathi esifanayo. Lokhu kungase kube ngenxa yokuncipha kwemakethe yezimoto kanye nokushintsha kancane kancane kwezinkampani ezinkulu ezikhiqiza izimoto eziya ezimotweni zikagesi. Ngokuzayo, uma abakhi bezimoto begxila ekufakeni ugesi futhi beqhubeka nokuthengisa amamodeli e-ICE akhona kunokwenyusa isabelomali sokuthuthukiswa kwamasha, inani eliphelele lamamodeli akhona e-ICE lingase lihlale lizinzile, kuyilapho inani lamamodeli amasha lizokwehla.
Ukutholakala kwamamodeli ezimoto zikagesi kukhula ngokushesha uma kuqhathaniswa namamodeli enjini evuthayo yangaphakathi, nge-CAGR engama-30% ngo-2016-2022. Ezimakethe ezisafufusa, lokhu kukhula kufanele kulindelwe njengoba isibalo esikhulu sabasanda kungena beletha imikhiqizo emisha emakethe futhi labo abasesikhundleni bashintsha amaphothifoliyo emikhiqizo yabo. Ukukhula kuye kwaba ngaphansi kancane eminyakeni yamuva, cishe ku-25% minyaka yonke ngo-2021 kanye no-15% ngo-2022. Izinombolo zamamodeli kulindeleke ukuthi ziqhubeke zikhula ngokushesha esikhathini esizayo njengoba abakhiqizi bezimoto abakhulu benweba amaphothifoliyo abo e-EV futhi abasanda kungena baqinisa isisekelo sabo, ikakhulukazi kwabasafufusa. izimakethe namazwe asathuthuka (EMDEs). Inombolo yomlando yamamodeli e-ICE atholakalayo emakethe iphakamisa ukuthi inombolo yamanje yezinketho ze-EV okungenani ingaphindeka kabili ngaphambi kokwehlukana.
Inkinga enkulu emakethe yezimoto yomhlaba wonke (ezinazo zombili izimoto zikagesi nezinjini ezivuthayo zangaphakathi) ukubusa okukhulu kwama-SUV namamodeli amakhulu emakethe ngezinketho ezingabizi kakhulu. Abenzi bezimoto bangathola imali engenayo ephezulu kumamodeli anjalo ngenxa yenani eliphezulu lembuyiselo, elingamboza ingxenye yokutshalwa kwezimali ekuthuthukisweni kwezimoto zikagesi. Kwezinye izimo, njenge-US, izimoto ezinkulu nazo zingazuza ezindinganisweni zokonga uphethiloli ezingaqinile, ezikhuthaza abakhiqizi bezimoto ukuthi bakhulise kancane usayizi wemoto ukuze bafanelekele ukuba ngamaloli amancane.
Kodwa-ke, amamodeli amakhulu abiza kakhulu, okwenza izinkinga ezinkulu zokufinyeleleka kuyo yonke ibhodi, ikakhulukazi ezimakethe ezisafufusa nasemazweni asathuthuka. Amamodeli amakhulu nawo anemithelela ekuzinzeni nasekunikezeni izimpahla njengoba esebenzisa amabhethri amakhulu adinga amaminerali abaluleke kakhulu. Ngo-2022, isilinganiso sosayizi webhethri esisindisiwe sezimoto ezincane ezisebenza ngogesi sizosuka ku-25 kWh e-China siye ku-35 kWh e-France, e-Germany nase-UK, futhi cishe ku-60 kWh e-US. Uma kuqhathaniswa, isilinganiso sokusetshenziswa kulawa mazwe singama-70–75 kWh kuma-SUV kagesi kuphela kanye nebanga elingu-75–90 kWh kumamodeli amakhulu.
Ngaphandle kobukhulu bemoto, ukushintsha usuka ezinjinini ezivuthayo uye emandleni kagesi kuyinto ehamba phambili ekufezeni okuhloswe ukuthi kungakhiphi, kodwa ukunciphisa umthelela wamabhethri amakhulu nakho kubalulekile. Ngo-2022, eFrance, eJalimane nase-UK, isisindo sokuthengisa esilinganiselwe sama-SUV asebenza ngogesi sizophinda siphindwe izikhathi ezingu-1.5 kunezimoto ezincane ezivamile zikagesi ezidinga insimbi eyengeziwe, i-aluminium nepulasitiki; amabhethri amaningi angekho emgwaqeni aphindwe kabili adinga amaminerali angu-75% ngaphezulu. Ukukhishwa kwe-CO2 okuhlotshaniswa nokuphathwa kwempahla, ukukhiqizwa nokuhlanganisa kulindeleke ukuthi kukhuphuke ngaphezu kwama-70%.
Ngasikhathi sinye, ama-SUV kagesi anganciphisa ukusetshenziswa kukawoyela ngemiphongolo engaphezu kuka-150,000 ngosuku ngo-2022 futhi agweme ukukhishwa kwe-exhasi ehambisana nokushiswa kukaphethiloli ezinjinini ezivuthayo zangaphakathi. Nakuba ama-SUV kagesi azothatha cishe u-35% wazo zonke izimoto ezihamba ngogesi (PLDVs) ngo-2022, isabelo sazo sokukhishwa kukaphethiloli sizoba phezulu nakakhulu (cishe ama-40%) ngoba ama-SUV avame ukusetshenziswa kakhulu kunezimoto ezincane. Impela, izimoto ezincane zivamise ukudinga amandla amancane ukuze zisebenze kanye nezinto zokwakha ezimbalwa, kodwa ama-SUV kagesi asathanda izimoto zenjini evuthayo.
Ngo-2022, ama-ICE SUV azokhipha ngaphezu kwe-1 Gt ye-CO2, edlula kude ukuncishiswa kwe-80 Mt net yezimoto zikagesi kulo nyaka. Nakuba ukudayiswa kwezimoto sekukonke kuzokwehla ngo-0.5% ngo-2022, ukuthengiswa kweSUV kuzokhula ngo-3% uma kuqhathaniswa no-2021, okuzobalelwa ku-45% wokudayiswa kwezimoto sezizonke, nokukhula okuphawulekayo okuvela e-US, India naseYurophu. Ezimotweni ze-ICE ezingu-1,300 ezitholakala ngo-2022, ezingaphezu kuka-40% zizoba ngamaSUV, uma kuqhathaniswa nezimoto ezincane neziphakathi nendawo ezingaphansi kuka-35%. Inani eliphelele lezinketho ze-ICE ezitholakalayo liyancipha ukusuka ku-2016 kuya ku-2022, kodwa kuphela ezimotweni ezincane neziphakathi (ukwehla ngama-35%), kuyilapho landa ezimotweni ezinkulu kanye nama-SUV (ukunyuka ngo-10%).
Umkhuba ofanayo uyabonakala emakethe yezimoto zikagesi. Cishe u-16% wawo wonke ama-SUV adayiswe ngo-2022 azoba ama-EV, okwedlula ingxenye yemakethe yonke yama-EV, okubonisa ukukhetha kwabathengi kuma-SUV, kungakhathaliseki ukuthi izimoto ezivuthayo zangaphakathi noma zikagesi. Ngo-2022, cishe amaphesenti angu-40 azo zonke izinhlobo zezimoto zikagesi azoba ama-SUV, okulingana nesabelo esihlanganisiwe sezimoto ezincane neziphakathi. Amaphesenti angaphezu kuka-15 awela esabelweni samanye amamodeli amakhulu. Eminyakeni emithathu nje edlule, ngo-2019, amamodeli amancane naphakathi nendawo ayebalelwa ku-60% wawo wonke amamodeli atholakalayo, namaSUV angama-30 kuphela.
E-China naseYurophu, ama-SUV namamodeli amakhulu azokwenza amaphesenti angu-60 okukhethwa kwe-BEV okukhona ngo-2022, ngokuvumelana nesilinganiso somhlaba wonke. Ngokuphambene, ama-SUV namamodeli amakhulu e-ICE enza cishe amaphesenti angama-70 amamodeli e-ICE atholakala kulezi zifunda, okuphakamisa ukuthi ama-EV okwamanje asemancane kunozakwabo base-ICE. Izitatimende ezivela kwabanye abakhiqizi bezimoto abakhulu base-Europe baphakamisa ukuthi kungase kugxilwe kakhulu kumamodeli amancane kodwa aziwa kakhulu eminyakeni ezayo. Isibonelo, iVolkswagen imemezele ukuthi izokwethula imodeli ehlanganisiwe engu-€ 25,000 emakethe yaseYurophu ngo-2025 kanye nemodeli ehlanganisiwe engaphansi kwama-€ 20,000 ngo-2026-27 ukuze ihehe uhla olubanzi lwabathengi. E-US, ngaphezu kuka-80% wezinketho ezitholakalayo ze-BEV kuzoba ama-SUV noma amamodeli amakhulu ngo-2022, ngaphezulu kwesabelo esingu-70% sama-SUV noma amamodeli amakhulu e-ICE. Uma sibheka phambili, uma isimemezelo sakamuva sokwandisa izinzuzo ze-IRA kuma-SUV engeziwe sifezeka, lindela ukubona ama-SUV kagesi engeziwe e-US. Ngaphansi kwe-IRA, uMnyango Wezezimali wase-US ububuyekeza ukuhlukaniswa kwezimoto kwathi ngo-2023 washintsha indlela yokufaneleka yokubolekwa kwezimoto ezihlanzekile ezihlotshaniswa nama-SUV amancane, manje afaneleka uma intengo ingaphansi kuka-$80,000 kusukela kumkhawulo wangaphambilini. ku-$55,000. .
Ukuthengiswa kwezimoto zikagesi e-China kukhuliswe ngokuqhubekayo kokusekelwa kwezombusazwe kanye nezintengo eziphansi zokudayisa. Ngo-2022, intengo emaphakathi enesisindo yokuthengisa yezimoto ezincane zikagesi e-China izoba ngaphansi kuka-$10,000, ngaphansi kwezinga elingaphezu kuka-$30,000 ngonyaka ofanayo lapho inani elilinganiselwe lokuthengisa elilinganiselwe lezimoto ezincane zikagesi e-Europe nase-United States lidlula u-$30,000.
E-China, izimoto zikagesi ezithengiswa kakhulu ngo-2022 kuzoba yi-Wuling Mini BEV, imoto encane enenani elingaphansi kuka-$6,500, kanye nemoto encane ye-BYD Dolphin ebiza ngaphansi kuka-$16,000. Ngokuhlangene, lezi zinhlobo ezimbili zenza cishe amaphesenti ayi-15 okukhula kweChina ekuthengisweni kwezimoto zikagesi zabagibeli, okubonisa isidingo samamodeli amancane. Uma kuqhathaniswa, izimoto ezincane ezisebenza ngogesi ezithengiswa kakhulu eFrance, eJalimane nase-UK - i-Fiat 500, Peugeot e-208 kanye ne-Renault Zoe - zibiza ngaphezu kwe-$ 35,000. Izimoto ezincane ezisebenza ngogesi zimbalwa kakhulu ezithengiswa e-US, ikakhulukazi i-Chevrolet Bolt ne-Mini Cooper BEV, ebiza cishe u-$30,000. I-Tesla Model Y iyimoto yomgibeli i-BEV edayiswa kakhulu kwamanye amazwe ase-Europe (ngaphezu kuka-$65,000) kanye ne-United States (ngaphezu kuka-$10,000). 50,000).6
Abakhiqizi bezimoto baseShayina bagxile ekuthuthukiseni amamodeli amancane, athengekayo, ngaphambi kozakwabo bamazwe ngamazwe, ukunciphisa izindleko ngemva kweminyaka yokuncintisana okukhulu kwasekhaya. Kusukela ngeminyaka yawo-2000, amakhulukhulu abakhiqizi bezimoto zikagesi abancane bangene emakethe, bahlomula ezinhlelweni ezihlukene zokusekelwa zikahulumeni, okuhlanganisa uxhaso kanye nezikhuthazo zabathengi nabakhiqizi. Iningi lalezi zinkampani likhishiwe emqhudelwaneni njengoba uxhaso lwasuswa kanti imakethe isihlanganiswe nabaholi abayidlanzana asebephumelele ukuthuthukisa izimoto ezisebenza ngogesi ezincane nezishibhile emakethe yaseChina. Ukuhlanganiswa okuqondile kwebhethri nezimoto zikagesi, kusukela ekucutshungulweni kwezimbiwa kuya ekukhiqizeni ibhethri nezimoto zikagesi, kanye nokufinyelela emisebenzini eshibhile, ukukhiqiza kanye nokuxhaswa ngezimali kulo lonke ibhodi nakho kuqhuba ukuthuthukiswa kwamamodeli ashibhile.
Ngaleso sikhathi, abakhiqizi bezimoto e-Europe nase-US - noma ngabe abathuthukisi bokuqala abafana noTesla noma abadlali abakhulu abakhona - kuze kube manje bagxile kakhulu kumamodeli amakhulu, aphambili, ngaleyo ndlela banikeze okuncane emakethe enkulu. Kodwa-ke, okuhlukile okuncane okutholakala kulawa mazwe kuvame ukunikeza ukusebenza okungcono kunalezo zase-China, njengobubanzi obude. Ngo-2022, i-average-weighted average mileage yezimoto ezincane zikagesi ezithengiswa e-US izofinyelela kumakhilomitha angama-350, kanti eFrance, eJalimane nase-UK lesi sibalo sizoba ngaphansi kwamakhilomitha angama-300, kanti eChina lesi sibalo sincane. ngaphezu kwamakhilomitha angama-220. Kwezinye izigaba, umehluko awubalulekile kangako. Ukuduma kweziteshi zokushaja zomphakathi e-China kungase kuchaze ngokwengxenye ukuthi kungani abathengi baseShayina bengase bakhethe ibanga eliphansi kunabathengi base-Europe noma baseMelika.
I-Tesla yehlise amanani entengo kumamodeli ayo kabili ngo-2022 njengoba ukuncintisana kuya ngokushuba futhi abakhiqizi bezimoto abaningi bamemezele izinketho ezishibhile zeminyaka embalwa ezayo. Nakuba lezi zimangalo zifanele ukucwaninga okwengeziwe, lokhu kuthambekela kungase kubonise ukuthi igebe lentengo phakathi kwezimoto ezincane ezisebenza ngogesi kanye nezimoto ezikhona kakade zenjini evuthayo lingase livaleke kancane kancane phakathi neminyaka eyishumi.
Ngo-2022, izimakethe ezintathu ezinkulu zezimoto zikagesi - i-China, i-Europe kanye ne-US - zizobalelwa kuma-95% okuthengiswa komhlaba wonke. Izimakethe Ezisafufusa kanye Nezomnotho Ezisafufusa (ama-EMDE) ngaphandle kwase-China zenza ingxenye encane kuphela yemakethe yezimoto zikagesi emhlabeni wonke. Isidingo sezimoto zikagesi sinyukile eminyakeni yamuva nje, kodwa ukuthengiswa kusalokhu kuphansi.
Nakuba izimakethe ezisafufusa kanye namazwe asathuthuka ngokuvamile eshesha ukwamukela imikhiqizo yobuchwepheshe bamuva engabizi kakhulu njengama-smartphone, amakhompyutha namadivayisi axhunyiwe, izimoto zikagesi zihlala zibiza kakhulu kubantu abaningi. Ngokocwaningo lwakamuva, ngaphezu kwamaphesenti angu-50 abaphendulile eGhana bancamela ukuthenga imoto kagesi kunenjini evuthayo, kodwa abangaphezu kwengxenye yalabo abangaba abathengi abazimisele ukusebenzisa imali engaphezu kuka-$20,000 bethenga imoto kagesi. Umgoqo kungaba ukuntuleka kokushaja okuthembekile nokuthengekayo, kanye nekhono elilinganiselwe lokusevisa, ukulungisa nokunakekela izimoto zikagesi. Emazweni amaningi asafufusa nasathuthuka, ezokuthutha emgwaqeni zisasekelwe kakhulu ezixazululweni zezokuthutha ezincane ezindaweni zasemadolobheni njengamasondo amabili namathathu, enza igxathu elikhulu ekufakeni ugesi kanye nokuhamba ngokubambisana ukuze kuphumelele uhambo lwesifunda oluya emsebenzini. Ukuziphatha kokuthenga nakho kuhlukile, nobunikazi bezimoto ezizimele buphansi futhi ukuthenga kwemoto esetshenzisiwe kuvame kakhulu. Uma ubheka phambili, ngenkathi ukuthengiswa kwezimoto zikagesi (zombili ezintsha nezisetshenzisiwe) ezimakethe ezisafufusa nasemazweni asathuthuka kulindeleke ukuthi kukhule, amazwe amaningi kungenzeka aqhubeke nokuthembela kakhulu kumasondo amabili namathathu. kusho (bheka izimoto kulo mbiko).ingxenye) ).
Ngo-2022, kuzoba nokukhuphuka okukhulu kwezimoto zikagesi e-India, Thailand nase-Indonesia. Sekukonke, ukuthengiswa kwe-EV kulawa mazwe kuphindwe kathathu kusukela ngo-2021 kuya cishe ku-80,000. Ukuthengisa ngo-2022 kuphakeme ngokuphindwe kasikhombisa kunango-2019 ngaphambi kobhubhane lwe-Covid-19. Ngokuphambene, ukuthengiswa kwezinye izimakethe ezisafufusa kanye namazwe asathuthuka bekuphansi.
E-India, ukuthengiswa kwe-EV kuzofinyelela cishe ku-50,000 ngo-2022, okuphindwe kane kunango-2021, futhi ukuthengiswa kwezimoto okuphelele kuzokhula ngaphansi kuka-15%. Umkhiqizi wasekhaya ohamba phambili i-Tata yenza ngaphezu kuka-85% wokuthengiswa kwe-BEV, kuyilapho ukuthengiswa kwe-BEV Tigor/Tiago encane kuphindwe kane. Ukuthengiswa kwezimoto ezixhumene ne-plug-in e-India kusasondele kuqanda. Izinkampani ezintsha zezimoto ezisebenza ngogesi manje sezibhejela i-Production Incentive Scheme (PLI), okuwuhlelo loxhaso olulinganiselwa ku-$2 billion okuhloswe ngalo ukwandisa ukukhiqizwa kwezimoto zikagesi kanye nezingxenye zazo. Lolu hlelo luhehe ukutshalwa kwezimali kwesamba sezigidigidi ezingama-US$8.3.
Kodwa-ke, imakethe yaseNdiya okwamanje isagxile ekuhambeni okwabiwe nokuncane. Ngo-2022, u-25% wokuthengwa kwe-EV e-India uzokwenziwa abaqhubi bemikhumbi njengamatekisi. Ekuqaleni kuka-2023, uTata wathola i-oda elikhulu kwa-Uber lezimoto zikagesi ezingu-25,000. Futhi, ngenkathi u-55% wamasondo amathathu adayisiwe izimoto zikagesi, ngaphansi kuka-2% wezimoto ezithengiswayo izimoto zikagesi. I-Ola, inkampani enkulu yezimoto zikagesi e-India ngenzuzo, ayikanikezi izimoto zikagesi. I-Ola, esikhundleni salokho egxile ekuhambeni okuphansi, ihlose ukuphinda kabili umthamo wayo kagesi wamasondo amabili kuya ku-2 million ekupheleni kuka-2023 futhi ifinyelele umthamo wonyaka wezigidi ezingu-10 phakathi kuka-2025 no-2028. Le nkampani ihlela nokwakha ibhethri ye-lithium-ion isitshalo esinomthamo wokuqala we-5 GWh, ngokunwetshwa ku-100 GWh ngo-2030. U-Ola uhlela ukuqala ukuthengisa izimoto zikagesi ngebhizinisi layo lamatekisi ngo-2024 futhi ifake ugesi ngokugcwele imikhumbi yayo yamatekisi ngo-2029, ngenkathi yethula ibhizinisi layo lezimoto zikagesi ezihamba phambili nezimakethe ezinkulu. Le nkampani imemezele ukutshalwa kwezimali okungaphezulu kwezigidi ezingama- $ 900 ekukhiqizeni amabhethri nezimoto zikagesi eningizimu yeNdiya futhi inyuse ukukhiqizwa konyaka kusuka ezimotweni eziyi-100,000 kuya kweziyi-140,000.
E-Thailand, ukuthengiswa kwe-EV kuphindwe kabili kuya kumayunithi angu-21,000, okuthengisiwe kuhlukaniswa ngokulinganayo phakathi kwezimoto ezihlanzekile ezisebenza ngogesi nama-plug-in hybrids. Ukukhula kwenani labakhiqizi bezimoto baseChina kusheshise ukwamukelwa kwezimoto zikagesi kuleli. Ngo-2021, iGreat Wall Motors, inkampani ekhiqiza injini eyinhloko yaseChina (i-OEM), yethula i-Euler Haomao BEV emakethe yaseThailand, ezoba imoto kagesi ethengiswa kakhulu eThailand ngo-2022 ngokuthengiswa kwamayunithi angaba ngu-4,000. Imoto yesibili neyesithathu edume kakhulu yizimoto zamaShayina ezakhiwe yiShanghai Automotive Industry (SAIC), akukho neyodwa eyadayiswa eThailand ngo-2020. Abakhiqizi bezimoto baseChina bakwazile ukwehlisa intengo yezimoto zikagesi ezimbangini zakwamanye amazwe nazo ezidayiswe. wangena emakethe yaseThailand, njengeBMW neMercedes, ngaleyo ndlela eheha isisekelo sabathengi esibanzi. Ngaphezu kwalokho, uhulumeni wase-Thailand unikeza izikhuthazo zezezimali ezihlukahlukene zezimoto zikagesi, okuhlanganisa uxhaso, ukukhululeka kwentela yempahla ethengiswayo, kanye nokukhululwa kwentela yokungenisa, okungasiza ukukhulisa ukukhanga kwezimoto zikagesi. U-Tesla uhlela ukungena emakethe yaseThailand ngo-2023 futhi afake ukukhiqizwa kwama-supercharger.
E-Indonesia, ukuthengiswa kwezimoto zikagesi ezihlanzekile kukhuphuke izikhathi ezingaphezu kwezingu-14 kuya kumayunithi angaphezu kuka-10,000, kuyilapho ukuthengiswa kwama-plug-in hybrids kwahlala kusondele ku-zero. NgoMashi 2023, i-Indonesia yamemezela izikhuthazo ezintsha zokuxhasa ukuthengiswa kwamasondo amabili kagesi, izimoto namabhasi, okuhloswe ngawo ukuqinisa amandla okukhiqiza izimoto zikagesi zasekhaya kanye nebhethri ngokusebenzisa izidingo zezingxenye zasendaweni. Uhulumeni uhlela ukuxhasa ukuthengiswa kwamasondo kagesi angama-200,000 kanye nezimoto zikagesi ezingama-36,000 ngo-2023 ngamasheya okuthengisa amaphesenti angama-4 namaphesenti angama-5 ngokulandelana. Uxhaso olusha lunganciphisa amanani entengo yamasondo amabili kagesi ngo-25-50% ukuwasiza aqhudelane nozakwabo base-ICE. I-Indonesia idlala indima ebalulekile ochungechungeni lokuhlinzekwa kwezimoto zikagesi namabhethri, ikakhulukazi uma kubhekwa imithombo yayo yamaminerali enothile kanye nesimo njengomkhiqizi omkhulu emhlabeni we-nickel ore. Lokhu kuhehe ukutshalwa kwezimali okuvela ezinkampanini zomhlaba, futhi i-Indonesia ingaba isikhungo esikhulu kunazo zonke esifundeni sokukhiqiza amabhethri nezingxenye.
Ukutholakala kwemodeli kuseyinselelo ezimakethe ezisafufusa nasemazweni asathuthuka, namamodeli amaningi athengiswa ikakhulukazi kumasegimenti aphambili njengama-SUV namamodeli amakhulu okunethezeka. Nakuba ama-SUV ewumkhuba womhlaba wonke, amandla alinganiselwe okuthenga ezimakethe ezisafufusa kanye namazwe asathuthuka enza lezi zimoto zingakwazi ukuthengeka. Ezifundeni ezehlukene okukhulunywa ngazo kulesi sigaba sombiko, kunesamba sezimakethe ezisafufusa ezingaphezu kuka-60 namazwe asathuthuka, okuhlanganisa nalawo asekelwa yiGlobal Environment Facility's (GEF) Global Electric Mobility Programme, lapho inani lezinhlobo zezimoto ezinkulu ezitholakalayo. izimali ngo-2022 zizoba izikhathi ezimbili kuya kweziyisithupha kunezamabhizinisi amancane.
E-Afrika, imodeli yemoto kagesi ethengiswa kakhulu ngo-2022 kuzoba i-Hyundai Kona (i-pure electric crossover), kanti i-Taycan BEV enkulu nemba eqolo yakwaPorsche inerekhodi lokuthengisa elicishe lilingane ne-midsize Leaf BEV yakwaNissan. Ama-SUV kagesi aphinde athengise ngokuphindwe kasishiyagalombili kunezimoto zikagesi ezincane ezimbili ezithengiswa kakhulu zihlangene: iMini Cooper SE BEV neRenault Zoe BEV. E-India, imodeli ye-EV ethengwa kakhulu yi-Tata Nexon BEV crossover, edayiswe ngaphezu kwamayunithi angu-32,000, okuphindwe kathathu kunemodeli elandelayo edayise kakhulu, i-Tigor/Tiago BEV encane ka-Tata. Kuzo zonke izimakethe ezisafufusa nasemazweni asathuthuka ambozwe lapha, ukuthengiswa kwama-SUV kagesi afinyelele kumayunithi angu-45,000, okungaphezu kokuthengiswa kwezimoto zikagesi ezincane (23,000) neziphakathi (16,000) zihlangene. ECosta Rica, okuyiyona ehamba phambili ngokudayiswa kwe-EV eLatin America, ezine kuphela kwezingama-20 ezihamba phambili okungezona eze-SUV, futhi cishe ingxenye yesithathu iyimodeli kanokusho. Ikusasa lokufakwa kukagesi ngobuningi ezimakethe ezisafufusa nasemazweni asathuthuka lincike ekuthuthukisweni kwezimoto zikagesi ezincane nezithengekayo, kanye namasondo amabili namathathu.
Umehluko obalulekile ekuhloleni ukuthuthukiswa kwemakethe yezimoto umehluko phakathi kokubhaliswa nokuthengisa. Ukubhaliswa okusha kubhekisela enanini lezimoto ezibhaliswe ngokusemthethweni neminyango kahulumeni efanele noma izikhungo zomshwalense okokuqala ngqa, okuhlanganisa nezimoto zasekhaya neziphuma kwamanye amazwe. Ivolumu yokuthengisa ingase ibhekisele ezimotweni ezithengiswa abathengisi noma abathengisi (izitolo ezithengisayo), noma izimoto ezithengiswa abakhiqizi bezimoto kubathengisi (okwakudala, okubandakanya okuthekelisa ngaphandle). Lapho uhlaziya imakethe yezimoto, ukukhethwa kwezinkomba kungabaluleka kakhulu. Ukuqinisekisa ukubalwa kwezimali okungaguquki kuwo wonke amazwe futhi kugwenywe ukubala kabili emhlabeni jikelele, usayizi wemakethe yezimoto kulo mbiko usekelwe ekubhalisweni kwezimoto ezintsha (uma zikhona) nasekuthengisweni kwezitolo, hhayi ukulethwa kwefekthri.
Ukubaluleka kwalokhu kuvezwe kahle yimikhuba yemakethe yezimoto yaseShayina ngo-2022. Ukudilivwa kwamafekthri (okubalwa njengenani elithengiswayo) emakethe yezimoto zabagibeli yaseChina kubikwa ukuthi kukhule ngo-7% kuya ku-10% ngo-2022, kuyilapho ukubhaliswa kwenkampani yomshwalense kukhombisa imakethe yasekhaya evilaphayo ngonyaka ofanayo. Ukwenyuka kubonwe kudatha evela ku-China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM), umthombo wedatha osemthethweni wemboni yezimoto yase-China. Idatha ye-CAAM iqoqwa kubakhiqizi bezimoto futhi imele ukulethwa kwefekthri. Omunye umthombo ocashunwe kabanzi yi-China Passenger Car Association (CPCA), inhlangano engekho ngaphansi kukahulumeni edayisa izimoto eziningi, ezithengisa, futhi ezithumela ngaphandle, kodwa engagunyaziwe ukuhlinzeka ngezibalo zikazwelonke futhi ayiwakhavi wonke ama-OEM, kuyilapho i-CAAM ikwenza. . I-China Automotive Technology and Research Center (CATARC), isikhungo somcabango sikahulumeni, siqoqa idatha yokukhiqiza imoto ngokusekelwe ezinombolweni zokukhomba imoto nezinombolo zokuthengisa izimoto ngokusekelwe kudatha yokubhaliswa komshwalense wemoto. E-China, umshwalense wemoto ukhishelwa imoto ngokwayo, hhayi umshayeli ngamunye, ngakho-ke iwusizo ekugcineni inombolo yezimoto emgwaqeni, okuhlanganisa nezingenisiwe. Umehluko omkhulu phakathi kwedatha ye-CATARC neminye imithombo ihlobene nezempi ezithunyelwa ngaphandle nezingabhalisiwe noma ezinye izinto zokusebenza, kanye nezitoko zabakhi bezimoto.
Ukukhula okusheshayo kwenani eliphelele lokuthunyelwa kwezimoto zabagibeli ngo-2022 kwenza umehluko phakathi kwale mithombo yedatha ubonakale nakakhulu. Ngo-2022, ukuthunyelwa kwezimoto zabagibeli kuzokwenyuka cishe ngamaphesenti angama-60 kuye ngaphezu kwezigidi ezi-2.5, kanti ukuthengwa kwezimoto zabagibeli kuzokwehla cishe ngama-20% (kusuka kumayunithi angama-950,000 kuye kwangama-770,000).
Isikhathi sokuthumela: Sep-01-2023